Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Communicating natural hazards science advice: Understanding scientists', decision-makers’, and the public's perceptions of the scientific process
(Elsevier B.V., 2025-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS
How individuals perceive scientific processes impacts their interpretation of, trust in, and use of, science advice particularly when managing uncertain natural hazard risk. We explored a) how diverse stakeholders understand how science of natural hazards is produced, and b) how this relates to their ontological, epistemological, and philosophical views of science. Using inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 31 participants involved in the management of natural hazards in Aotearoa New Zealand (including non-scientists), we produced three leading themes describing their views: 1) ‘Science is a way of seeing the world’; 2) ‘Science has limitations’; and 3) ‘Knowledge evolves’. Across Scientist, non-Scientist, and Lay public groups, there was broad agreement on the fundamental steps of the scientific process, aligning mostly with a hypothetico-deductive process. However, many discussed how others may have different perspectives of scientific approaches, truth, and reality. These are informed by training, disciplinary biases, cultural practices, and personal experience of hazards and associated science. We propose that individuals who recognise different worldviews and philosophies of science will experience higher levels of communication and cognitive uncertainty, which encourages information seeking behaviour and can improve communication efficacy, particularly during high pressure events. We conclude with three communication lessons: 1) be transparent about the processes and causes of change in natural hazards science advice; 2) communicate as both trusted individuals as well as through collective Science Advisory Group (SAG) systems; and 3) provide accessible structures and language to help lay people articulate scientific processes they often intuitively understand, rather than just simplifying information.
The communication of volcano information in New Zealand–a narrative review
(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-02-13) Das M; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Charlton D; Clive MA; Krippner J; Vinnell LJ; Miller C; Stewart C; Gabrielsen H; Potter SH; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Tapuke K; Fournier N; McBride SK
Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.
Transformative approaches to disaster risk reduction: Social, societal, and environmental contributions to post-disaster capacity building
(Massey University, 2024-12) Paton D; Buergelt PT; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Jang L-J; Johnston DM; Tedim F
This paper discusses whether Community Engagement Theory (CET) could be augmented in ways that afford opportunities to develop a framework for understanding how emergent change and transformative learning can occur in disaster response and recovery settings. The foundation for doing so derives from appreciating that CET describes process theory that comprises variables representing adaptive capacities. That is, the presence of these capacities enables people to adapt to any set of circumstances, particularly when people are called upon to make decisions and to act during conditions of uncertainty. This approach builds on the potential for variables such as community participation, collective efficacy, and empowerment to provide a social context for people to formulate and enact strategies to support their recovery and to be able to do so when interacting with government, non-government, and business entities. However, based on a critical comparative analysis of relevant research into post-disaster emergent and transformational shifts in community capacity, it is argued that the above variables need to be augmented. The paper discusses the rationale for including factors such as community leadership, governance, place attachment, and city identity in an augmented conceptual transdisciplinary transformative learning Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) model. The function of this model is consistent with the Sendai Framework for DRR Priority 4, Building Back Better goal.
A decade of shaking in the Garden City: the dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-11-11) Becker JS; Vinnell LJ; Doyle EEH; McBride SK; Paton D; Johnston DM; Fallou L
Introduction: This study explored earthquake preparedness over time—before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in New Zealand (NZ; known as Aotearoa in te ao Māori). Method: Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013, and 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Results: Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g., risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g., collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and/or agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people's experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES, people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people's experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. Discussion: An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people's experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.
Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
(Elsevier Ltd., 2024-10-21) Wein AM; McBride SK; Becker JS; Christophersen A; Doyle EEH; Gerstenberger MC; Potter SH
On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine's Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine's Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.
Differences in perceived sources of uncertainty in natural hazards science advice: lessons for cross-disciplinary communication
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-04-04) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS; Tagliacozzo S
Introduction: We conducted mental model interviews in Aotearoa NZ to understand perspectives of uncertainty associated with natural hazards science. Such science contains many layers of interacting uncertainties, and varied understandings about what these are and where they come from creates communication challenges, impacting the trust in, and use of, science. To improve effective communication, it is thus crucial to understand the many diverse perspectives of scientific uncertainty. Methods: Participants included hazard scientists (n = 11, e.g., geophysical, social, and other sciences), professionals with some scientific training (n = 10, e.g., planners, policy analysts, emergency managers), and lay public participants with no advanced training in science (n = 10, e.g., journalism, history, administration, art, or other domains). We present a comparative analysis of the mental model maps produced by participants, considering individuals’ levels of training and expertise in, and experience of, science. Results: A qualitative comparison identified increasing map organization with science literacy, suggesting greater science training in, experience with, or expertise in, science results in a more organized and structured mental model of uncertainty. There were also language differences, with lay public participants focused more on perceptions of control and safety, while scientists focused on formal models of risk and likelihood. Discussion: These findings are presented to enhance hazard, risk, and science communication. It is important to also identify ways to understand the tacit knowledge individuals already hold which may influence their interpretation of a message. The interview methodology we present here could also be adapted to understand different perspectives in participatory and co-development research.
A new mapping tool to visualise critical infrastructure levels of service following a major earthquake
(Elsevier B.V., 2024-01) Mowll R; Anderson MJ; Logan TM; Becker JS; Wotherspoon LM; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neely D
How can emergency management teams communicate to potentially impacted communities what a major event causing infrastructure outages might mean for them, and what they can do to prepare? In this paper we describe the process of creating a webtool for end users to visualise infrastructure outages that the Wellington region of New Zealand would face following a rupture of the Wellington fault. This webtool creates insight for three key groups: critical infrastructure owners, communities, and the emergency management sector itself. Critical infrastructure entities can use the tool to understand where they might consider infrastructure upgrades to mitigate gaps of delivery following a fault rupture, and to consider their emergency response plans for delivery in an emergency (leading to their consideration of ‘planning emergency levels of service’). Communities can use the tool to understand what infrastructure outages will mean at the household level in an emergency, including the considerable distances that some community members will have to walk to access services such as food and water and prepare for prolonged outages. Finally, with a greater knowledge of the gaps in delivery and of those community members that might need assistance with food and water collection, the emergency management sector can be better prepared. The methodology for creating the webtool is described, along with the insights that the completed webtool provides for emergency planning.
Community preparedness for volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, USA
(BioMed Central Ltd, 2021-12-09) Vinnell L; Hudson-Doyle EE; Johnston DM; Becker JS; Kaiser L; Lindell MK; Bostrom A; Gregg C; Dixon M; Terbush B
Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who will need help to evacuate see the risk as lower but feel less prepared; those who think their community and officials are more prepared feel more prepared themselves; and benefits of evacuation drills and testing evacuation routes including stronger intentions to evacuate using an encouraged method and higher self-efficacy. We make a number of recommendations based on these findings including the critical practice of regular evacuation drills and the importance of ongoing messaging that focuses on appropriate ways to evacuate as well as the careful recommendation for residents to identify alternative unofficial evacuation routes.
Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-11-01) Bostrom A; McBride SK; Becker JS; Goltz JD; de Groot R-M; Peek L; Terbush B; Dixon M
In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.
Homeowners' Perceptions of Seismic Building Performance and Implications for Preparedness in New Zealand
(American Society of Civil Engineers, 2023-02-01) Miranda C; Becker JS; Toma CL; Vinnell LJ
Over the last decade, engineering studies have mentioned the need for meeting societal demands of damage expectations and housing performance for major earthquakes. However, they do not refer to any systematic analysis examining such societal demands, nor have they investigated interactions of this with voluntary seismic strengthening. A questionnaire distributed to homeowners of wooden-framed houses in the Wellington region of New Zealand investigated these issues. Survey respondents expected a better seismic performance of their house after voluntarily undertaking structural strengthening (i.e., positive outcome expectancy) and expected a better seismic performance of their house, regardless of the use of strengthening, than what is accepted by current seismic codes, which aim for life safety (i.e., collapse prevention). Although this study found that experience of damage in past earthquakes was not associated with final implementation of such preparedness measures, access to strengthening information and trust toward providers of information, such as builders, were found to play a key role when adopting strengthening. This study gives insight into the role that outcome expectancy and sources of information play in voluntary structural strengthening of residential low-rise buildings and indicates a need for better engagement, such as working closer with builders as sources of information, to reduce losses in future major earthquakes.

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