Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Seroprevalence of Nipah virus and related paramyxoviruses in native frugivorous bats, Luzon, Philippines(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of hanghai Shangyixun Cultural Communication Co, LTD, 2025-12-01) Rekedal MS; Noroña M-G; Café JAP; Mittal N; Borthwick SA; Taray KJ; Garcia JJL; Magsanoc SL; Cruz HR; Manzano DJ; Yan L; Low DHW; Hayman DTS; Dacuma MG; Demetria C; Alviola PA; Malbas FF; Smith GJD; Laing EDNipah virus (NiV) is a highly virulent zoonotic virus classified as a priority pathogen and biohazard. In 2014, an outbreak of NiV-like disease in the Province of Sultan Kudarat, Mindanao, Philippines resulted in a 53% case fatality rate. Here, we identified wildlife bat hosts of NiV by conducting monthly serological surveillance of flying foxes and other native frugivorous bat species across Luzon. We estimated 13.92% NiV seroprevalence in native flying foxes. We also detected NiV neutralizing activity in some flying fox sera and identified factors such as age and seasonality as drivers of high anti-NiV antibody levels. In contrast, less than 10% NiV seroprevalence was detected in R. amplexicaudatus, C. luzoniensis, and P. jagori bats, and these bats have no detectable neutralizing antibodies. This is the first serological description of NiV in native flying foxes in the Philippines, highlighting a major wildlife host in an understudied region.Item Upscaling effects on infectious disease emergence risk emphasize the need for local planning in primary prevention within biodiversity hotspots(Springer Nature Limited, 2025-10-27) Muylaert RL; Wilkinson DA; Dwiyanti EI; Hayman DTSZoonotic risk assessments are increasingly vital in the wake of recent epidemics. The microbial diversity of parasitic organisms correlates with host species richness, with regions of high biodiversity facing elevated risks of emerging zoonotic infections. While habitat loss and fragmentation reduce species diversity, anthropogenic encroachment, particularly in forested areas, amplifies human exposure to novel pathogens. This study integrates host habitat, biodiversity, human encroachment, and population at risk to estimate novel disease emergence and epidemic risk at multiple spatial scales. Using Java, Indonesia, as a case study, we demonstrate that degrading spatial resolution leads to information loss, with optimal resolutions typically below 2000 m, ideally around 500 m when native-resolution processing is unfeasible. Gravity models of epidemic spread highlight Jakarta and West Java as high-risk areas, with varying contributions from surrounding regions. Our spatial analysis underscores the influence of population centers on forest management and agroforestry practices. These findings offer valuable insights for guiding pandemic prevention research and improving pathogen- and driver-based risk monitoring strategies.Item Pathways to an Intergovernmental Panel on Pandemics: lessons from the IPCC and IPBES(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-10-09) Carlson CJ; Trisos CH; Oppenheim B; Bansal S; Davies SE; Diongue-Niang A; Fan VY; Kraemer JD; Golden Kroner R; Gostin LO; Hayman DTS; Koopmans M; Lavelle TE; das Neves CG; O'Donoghue Z; Pereira LM; Roche B; Sirleaf M; Zamanian K; Zambrana-Torrelio C; Phelan ALPandemics pose a global threat to human wellbeing, justice, economies, and ecosystems and are comparable with other planetary crises such as climate change and biodiversity loss in terms of urgency and impact. The global community would benefit from a dedicated scientific synthesis body to assess pandemic risks and solutions. In this Personal View, we explore proposals for an Intergovernmental Panel on Pandemics and assess potential pathways to its creation. Learning lessons from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) might help national governments and international organisations to chart a course through important decisions about format, governance, operations, scientific scope and process, and ability to recommend policies that make the world safer.Item Spatial risk of pathogen transmission from cattle to vulnerable and endangered wild bovids in Thailand(Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology, 2025-08-12) Horpiencharoen W; Marshall JC; Muylaert RL; John RS; Hayman DTSThe interaction between livestock and wildlife causes challenges for wildlife conservation and public health. Mapping interface areas is essential for prioritizing disease surveillance, implementing mitigation measures, and developing targeted control programs to protect threatened wildlife. We used spatial overlays of habitat suitability to predict interface areas with high risk of pathogen transmission for three Thai wild bovids (gaur [Bos gaurus], banteng [Bos javanicus] and wild water buffalo [Bubalus arnee]) and domestic cattle. We assumed that domestic cattle are the reservoir of important bovine infectious diseases and that high cattle density is a proxy for a higher transmission risk. We calculated the interface inside and outside Thai protected areas and classified these by land use types. Then, we counted the number of bovine infectious disease occurrences reported in high-risk areas. Our study indicated that the highest risk areas for these species are at the forest edges where high habitat suitability and cattle densities overlap. Suitable habitats for wild water buffalo had the largest proportion of high-risk areas (9%), while gaur and banteng had similar risk areas (4%). Kuiburi National Park had the largest risk area (274 km2) for gaur and banteng, whereas the largest risk area for wild water buffalo overlapped with Huai Thabthan-Had Samran by 126 km2. Cropland and unclassified forests had the highest percentage of interface areas, indicating a higher risk of pathogen transmission. Our results highlight how habitat suitability analyses could help infectious disease prevention and control strategies and may also support wild bovid conservation initiatives.Item Correction: Development of a non-infectious control for viral hemorrhagic fever PCR assays(PLOS, 2025-07-09) Knox MA; Bromhead C; Hayman DTSThe Funding statement for this article is incorrect. The correct Funding statement is as follows: EBO-SURSY project funded by the European Union via the World Organisation for Animal Health (Grant 3000034275; OIE Laboratory (or Collaborating Centre) Twinning Project: Enhancing capacity for early detection of viral haemorrhagic fevers in Liberia through epidemiological and laboratory training).Item Practitioner perspectives on informing decisions in One Health sectors with predictive models(Springer Nature Limited, 2025-12-01) Pepin KM; Carlisle K; Chipman RB; Cole D; Anderson DP; Baker MG; Benschop J; Bunce M; Binny RN; French N; Greenhalgh S; O’Neale DRJ; McDougall S; Morgan FJ; Muellner P; Murphy E; Plank MJ; Tompkins DM; Hayman DTSThe continued emergence of challenges in human, animal, and environmental health (One Health sectors) requires public servants to make management and policy decisions about system-level ecological and sociological processes that are complex, poorly understood, and change over time. Relying on intuition, evidence, and experience for robust decision-making is challenging without a formal assimilation of these elements (a model), especially when the decision needs to consider potential impacts if an action is or is not taken. Models can provide assistance to this challenge, but effective development and use of model-based evidence in decision-making (‘model-to-decision workflow’) can be challenging. To address this gap, we examined conditions that maximize the value of model-based evidence in decision-making in One Health sectors by conducting 41 semi-structured interviews of researchers, science advisors, operational managers, and policy decision-makers with direct experience in model-to-decision workflows (‘Practitioners’) in One Health sectors. Broadly, our interview guide was structured to understand practitioner perspectives about the utility of models in health policy or management decision-making, challenges and risks with using models in this capacity, experience with using models, factors that affect trust in model-based evidence, and perspectives about conditions that lead to the most effective model-to-decision workflow. We used inductive qualitative analysis of the interview data with iterative coding to identify key themes for maximizing the value of model-based evidence in One Health applications. Our analysis describes practitioner perspectives for improved collaboration among modelers and decision-makers in public service, and priorities for increasing accessibility and value of model-based evidence in One Health decision-making. Two emergent priorities include establishing different standards for development of model-based evidence before or after decisions are made, or in real-time versus preparedness phases of emergency response, and investment in knowledge brokers with modeling expertise working in teams with decision-makers.Item Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence(John Wiley and Sons, Inc on behalf of the American Geophysical Union, 2025-06-01) Rulli MC; D’Odorico P; Galli N; John RS; Muylaert RL; Santini M; Hayman DTSMajor infectious diseases threatening human health are transmitted to people from animals or by arthropod vectors such as insects. In recent decades, disease outbreaks have become more common, especially in tropical regions, including new and emerging infections that were previously undetected or unknown. Even though there is growing awareness that altering natural habitats can lead to disease outbreaks, the link between land use change and emerging diseases is still often overlooked and poorly understood. Land use change typically destroys natural habitat and alters landscape composition and configuration, thus altering wildlife population dynamics, including those of pathogen hosts, domesticated (often intermediary) hosts, infectious agents, and their vectors. Moreover, land use changes provide opportunities for human exposure to direct contact with wildlife, livestock, and disease-carrying vectors, thereby increasing pathogen spillover from animals to humans. Here we explore the nexus between human health and land use change, highlighting multiple pathways linking emerging disease outbreaks and deforestation, forest fragmentation, urbanization, agricultural expansion, intensified farming systems, and concentrated livestock production. We connect direct and underlying drivers of land use change to human health outcomes related to infectious disease emergence. Despite growing evidence of land-use induced spillover, strategies to reduce the risks of emerging diseases are often absent from discussions on sustainable food systems and land management. A “One Health” perspective—integrating human, animal, and environmental health—provides a critical yet often-overlooked dimension for understanding the health impacts of land use change.Item Mpox: A case study for a one health approach to infectious disease prevention(Elsevier B V, Amsterdam, 2025-06) Hayman DTS; Koopmans MPG; Cunningham AA; Bukachi SA; Masirika LM; Markotter W; Mettenleiter TCMpox has been declared a global health emergency twice by the World Health Organization due to its impacts within and beyond Africa. Enzootic in Central and West African wildlife, mpox outbreaks have resulted from zoonotic spillover, with recent events revealing increased human-to-human transmission. Factors like population growth and environmental disruption, alongside reduced smallpox immunity, increase emergence risk. In addition, the emergence in South Kivu of a distinct subclade of mpox virus points at a currently understudied aspect of mpox virus lineages and their dynamics in reservoir hosts. A One Health approach—integrating human, animal, and environmental science—is essential for reducing the risk of mpox emergence. This approach should encompass ecological studies to understand putative reservoir population dynamics and the potential for interventions, reducing activities that increase human-animal contacts, respectful community engagement to reduce spillover risk from cultural practices (such as hunting multiple species of wildlife for consumption), and socially acceptable and equitable access to medical and non-medical countermeasures to prevent or control ongoing human-to-human transmission. Politically supported collaborative efforts across disciplines with involvement of stakeholders are critical to promote and strengthen socially and environmentally sustainable practices to mitigate future outbreaks.Item Preparing for the next pandemic: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand's Covid-19 response(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-03-18) French NP; Maxwell H; Baker MG; Callaghan F; Dyet K; Geoghegan JL; Hayman DTS; Huang QS; Kvalsvig A; Russell E; Scott P; Thompson TP; Plank MJIn 2020 Aotearoa New Zealand, like many other countries, faced the coronavirus pandemic armed with an influenza-based pandemic plan. The country adapted rapidly to mount a highly strategic and effective elimination response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, implementation was hampered by gaps in pandemic preparedness. These gaps undermined effectiveness of the response and exacerbated inequitable impacts of both Covid-19 disease and control measures. Our review examines the Covid-19 response, reflecting on strengths, limitations and implications for pandemic planning. We identify three key areas for improvement: 1) development of a systematised procedure for risk assessment of a new pandemic pathogen; 2) investment in essential capabilities during inter-pandemic periods; and 3) building equity into all stages of the response. We present a typology of potential pathogens and scenarios and describe the evidence assessment process and core capabilities required for countries to respond fluidly, equitably, and effectively to a rapidly emerging pandemic threat.Item Healthcare performance of leprosy management in peripheral health facilities of Dhanusa and Mahottari, Nepal.(BioMed Central Ltd, 2025-12) Mahato RK; Ghimire U; Bajracharya B; K C B; Bam D; Ghimire D; Pyakurel UR; Hayman DTS; Pandey BD; Das CL; Paudel KPBACKGROUND: The global elimination of leprosy transmission by 2030 is a World Health Organization (WHO) target. Nepal's leprosy elimination program depends on early case diagnosis and the performance of health workers and facilities. The knowledge and skills of paramedical staff (Leprosy Focal Person, LFP) and case documentation and management by health facilities are therefore key to the performance of health care services. METHODS: The performance of health workers and facilities was evaluated through a combined cross-sectional and retrospective study approach of 31 health facilities and their LFPs in Dhanusa and Mahottari Districts in Madhesh Province, Nepal. An average of 6 patients (paucibacillary, PB, or multibacillary, MB) per health facility registered within the 2018/2019 fiscal year were also enrolled in the study. LFP knowledge (e.g., of the three cardinal signs) and skills (e.g., nerve palpation) and facility processes (e.g., record keeping) were scored (e.g., 0, 1) and then rescaled to a proportion, where 1 is perfect. Internal benchmarking was used to guide performance management. RESULTS: Overall LFP knowledge and skill scores of health workers ranged from 0.16 to 0.63 (median 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.46-0.6). Case documentation scores ranged from 0.15 to 0.87 (median 0.37, 95% CI 0.36-0.38), case management scores from 0.38 to 0.79 (median 0.54, 95% CI 0.53-0.55) and overall healthcare scores from 0.36-0.62 (median 0.48, 95% CI 0.47-0.49). Leprosy-related training was significantly related to the knowledge and skills of the health workers. All identified cases (n = 187) adhered to the complete treatment and release after treatment (RFT) scheme, out of which 84.5% were satisfied with the service they were provided. Leprosy disability and ear hand and feet (EHF) scores were not significantly reduced in treated patients during the study period, but counseling by LFPs significantly improved cases' positive beliefs and practices regarding self-care. CONCLUSION: Overall leprosy care median performance was low (53%) and can be improved by evidenced-based training, onsite coaching, monitoring, and supervision to facilitate leprosy transmission elimination. The results highlight many of the challenges facing leprosy elimination programs.