Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item The Language of Uncertainty: Reading Türkiye's Economic Pulse Through Geopolitical Fog(John Wiley and Sons Limited, 2025-09-10) Kilic I; Balli FGeopolitical uncertainty is an increasing concern for investors, entrepreneurs, and researchers. Traditional methods of measuring uncertainty often fall short, whereas Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Natural Language Processing (NLP) offers more accurate and competitive options. In this study, we develop a Geopolitical Country-Specific Uncertainty (GCSU) index for Türkiye by applying the economic policy uncertainty index methodology. Since geopolitical uncertainty involves Knightian uncertainty—which cannot be quantified with probabilities in advance—our approach measures it by analysing the frequency of economy-, policy-, and uncertainty-related terms in Turkish-language newspapers. Unlike existing indexes for Türkiye, such as the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which rely on English-language sources, our localised method provides a more precise measure of country-specific uncertainty. Our findings show that an unexpected increase in geopolitical uncertainty leads to declines in employment, industrial production, trade, consumer confidence, and stock prices, while oil prices and inflation rise in response. However, these results may not be observed when uncertainty is measured using English sources (e.g., through the index from the GPR-Türkiye). These insights highlight the importance for policymakers to consider geopolitical uncertainty in their economic planning and suggest directions for further research into measuring uncertainty with local language sources.Item Stochastic simulation modeling of the economics of providing additional living space for housed dairy cows(Frontiers Media SA, Switzerland, 2024) Thompson JS; Hudson CD; Huxley JN; Kaler J; Green MJ; Oikonomou GThe housed environment for dairy cattle is of critical importance to their health, wellbeing, and productivity. Lack of space is an important factor for housing quality assessment due to links with increased likelihood of disease. A recently published randomized controlled trial identified that greater living space provision increased lying time, milk volume production, and also increased time to conception. However, despite probable improvements in cow welfare, the question remains as to whether offering increased living space is a cost-effective option for farmers. The costs associated with financing new housing facilities are escalating, and the industry urgently requires an evidence base for ensuring these investments are financially sustainable. This research used stochastic simulation modeling to explore theoretical net returns on infrastructure investment differences between two living space scenarios (3 m2 vs. 6.5 m2). A cow entered a simulation at the point of first calving, and milk production, reproductive performance, and points of exit were stochastically determined over the cow’s lifetime simultaneously based on living space scenario. This allowed for direct financial comparison over specified sets of parameter inputs. Where cows exited the herd within their second to fourth lactation, the median difference in financial return was observed to be +£87.61 per cow per year (mean + £86.74). The estimated return on investment to provide extra living space access varied dependent on provision method, interest rates, and loan repayment duration. Under the circumstances and contexts investigated, the results suggest that building for increased living space would be cost-effective. When building a new shed with a high living space versus control at a 4.00% interest rate, a median net return on infrastructure investment of +£23.00 per cow per year was identified (range –£25.91 to +£64.16 for 10th to 90th percentile). Since decreased living space is likely to lead to poorer welfare, it can be considered a negative production externality associated with current production systems, the cost of which should also be accounted for when analyzing the economics of housing. Further research is essential to gain a complete understanding of the cost-effectiveness of providing increased living space per cow under different management scenarios.Item A Bioeconomic Model for the Thoroughbred Racing Industry-Optimisation of the Production Cycle with a Horse Centric Welfare Perspective(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-01-30) Legg KA; Gee EK; Breheny M; Gibson MJ; Rogers CWThe Thoroughbred racing industry faces new and competing pressures to operate within a modern, changing society. Three major moderators drive the focus and productivity of the industry worldwide: economic sustainability, horse biology and social licence to operate. This review proposes that despite the apparent homogeneity in the structure of racing across jurisdictions due to international regulation of the sport, there are significant differences within each jurisdiction in each of the three moderators. This creates challenges for the comparison of injury risk factors for racehorses within the industry across different jurisdictions. Comparison of the relative distribution of racing and gambling metrics internationally indicates that the Asian jurisdictions have a high focus on gambling efficiency and high economic return of the product, with a high number of starts per horse and the highest relative betting turnover. In contrast, the racing metrics from the USA have proportionally low racing stakes and fewer horses per race. These differences provide insight into the sociology of horse ownership, with a shift from the long-term return on investment held by most jurisdictions to a short-term transitional view and immediate return on investment in others. Wastage studies identify varying risks influenced by the predominant racing culture, training methods, production focus and environment within individual jurisdictions. Increasing societal pressure to maintain high racehorse welfare and reduce the negative impact of gambling poses fluctuating risks to each jurisdiction's social licence to operate. Based on the data presented within this review, the authors propose that the use of a bioeconomic model would permit consideration of all three moderators on industry practice and optimisation of the jurisdiction-specific production cycle with a horse-centric welfare perspective.Item Addition of meloxicam to the treatment of bovine clinical mastitis results in a net economic benefit to the dairy farmer(Elsevier Inc and the Federation of Animal Science Societies (Fass) Inc on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association, 2018-04) van Soest FJS; Abbeloos E; McDougall S; Hogeveen HRecently, it has been shown that the addition of meloxicam to standard antimicrobial therapy for clinical mastitis (CM) improves the conception rate of dairy cows contracting CM in the first 120 d in milk. The objective of our study was to assess whether this improved reproduction through additional treatment with meloxicam would result in a positive net economic benefit for the farmer. We developed a stochastic bio-economic simulation model, in which a dairy cow with CM in the first 120 d in milk was simulated. Two scenarios were simulated in which CM cases were treated with meloxicam in conjunction with antimicrobial therapy or with antimicrobial therapy alone. The scenarios differed for conception rates (31% with meloxicam or 21% without meloxicam) and for the cost of CM treatment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken for the biological and economic components of the model to assess the effects of a wide range of inputs on inferences about the cost effectiveness of meloxicam treatment. Model results showed an average net economic benefit of €42 per CM case per year in favor of the meloxicam scenario. Cows in the no-meloxicam treatment scenario had higher returns on milk production, lower costs upon calving, and reduced costs of treatment. However, these did not outweigh the savings associated with lower feed intake, reduced number of inseminations, and the reduced culling rate. The net economic benefit favoring meloxicam therapy was a consequence of the better reproductive performance in the meloxicam scenario in which cows had a shorter calving to conception interval (132 vs. 143 d), a shorter intercalving interval (405 vs. 416 d), and fewer inseminations per conception (2.9 vs. 3.7) compared with cows in the no-meloxicam treatment scenario. This resulted in a shorter lactation, hence a lower lactational milk production (8,441 vs. 8,517 kg per lactation) with lower feeding costs in the meloxicam group. A lower culling rate (12 vs. 25%) resulted in lower replacement costs in the meloxicam treatment scenario. All of the scenarios evaluated in the sensitivity analyses favored meloxicam treatment over no meloxicam. This study demonstrated that improvements in conception rate achieved by the use of meloxicam, as additional therapy for mild to moderate CM in the first 120 d in milk, have positive economic benefits. This inference remained true over a wide range of technical and economic inputs, demonstrating that use of meloxicam is likely to be cost effective across many production systems.Item The pattern of breeding and management within the New Zealand Thoroughbred breeding industry 2005-2015. (II) The mare population(CSIRO Publishing, 2024-01) Chin YY; Rogers CW; Gee EK; Stafford KJ; Cameron EZContext: The New Zealand Thoroughbred breeding industry is heavily focused on producing horses for the export market and there has been a reduction in the number of horses racing in the past 20 years. The impact of these production constraints, and changes in production focus, have not been described at a national herd level. Aim: To describe the breeding management, reproductive performance, and careers of the New Zealand Thoroughbred broodmare herd during the 2005/06-2015/16 breeding seasons. Methods: The demographics, population structure, reproductive efficiency, breeding management and career descriptors of Thoroughbred mares were examined using descriptive analysis. Gestation length was modelled using a linear mixed effects model. The impact of different variables on breeding career were quantified by calculating odds ratio. Results: There was a consistent reduction in the size of the national broodmare herd over the 10 years investigated. Half of the mares not retained for breeding were mares that were breed to low-cost stallions. Despite a short (∼100 days) commercial breeding season few (20%) mares were mated early in the season (September), with most mating (70%) occurring between October and November. The 27 days mean foaling to conception interval (FCI) suggests that FCI was artificially shortened and most pregnancy was achieved within first oestrus cycle post-partum. Mare career length and lifetime productivity was positively associated with the stud fee of the first stallion that the mare was mated to and number of foals registered for racing. Conclusion: Mare replacement and loss within the national herd was disproportionately associated with mares that were producing foals for a contracting domestic racing market. There was a constricted breeding season with most mares being mated within the first oestrous cycle post-partum. Mare retention and breeding success were positively associated with the service fee of the sire and progeny that had raced, reflecting the commercial pressure of the industry on mare management. Implication: The changes in the broodmare herd and management reflects the increasing proportion of the industry focusing on breeding foals that will appeal to the export market. The economic drivers for early born foals provide management challenges as these are not aligned with the optimal reproductive season of the horse.Item The pattern of breeding and management within the New Zealand Thoroughbred breeding industry 2005-2015. 1. the stallion population(CSIRO Publishing, 2024-01) Chin YY; Rogers CW; Gee EK; Stafford KJ; Cameron EZ; Bryden WContext: There has been a contraction within the New Zealand Thoroughbred racing industry and there are limited data demonstrating how this has affected, or been reflected, within the breeding industry that supplies horses for the racing industry. A reduction in the breeding industry, to a greater extent in the sector servicing domestic rather than export market has been speculated. Aim: To describe the demographics, breeding pattern, reproductive career and workload of New Zealand Thoroughbred stallions between 2005 and 2015. Methods: The breeding records of all Thoroughbred stallions covering >10 mares during 2005/2006-2015/2016 breeding seasons and the lifetime breeding records of all the mares covered by these stallions were extracted from the New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing website. The demographics, population numbers, career pattern, and 10-year trend in market share of stallions in different stud fee categories were examined using descriptive analysis. The stallion's reproductive workload was modelled deterministically. Results: The breeding population reduced over the 10 years examined (mares by 20%, sires by 32%). This industry consolidation was almost entirely due to the 50% reduction in the number of mares mated to the low-priced stallions, which generated horses for the domestic market. The relative proportion of mares sent to medium- and high-priced stallions (breed to sell and export sector) doubled. The commercial breeding career of low- and medium-priced stallions and shuttle stallions was short (4-5 years). The number of mares covered by a stallion increased with stud fee category. Stallions covered a greater number of mares in October and November than in September and December because of the restricted opportunity to cover foaled mares early in the season, caused by the long gestation length of mares and the need to cover mares before December. Conclusions: Findings in this study support that the contraction in the New Zealand Thoroughbred breeding industry was due to a reduction in the industry sector that focuses primarily on supplying horses for domestic racing. Commercial pressure and biological constraints heavily influenced the reproductive management of the breeding industry. The breeding management of stallions during the season is heavily influenced by stallion service fee category, which reflects his book size and the commercial appeal of the resultant progeny. Implications: The contraction within the domestic sector of the breeding industry was reflected in the concurrent contraction within New Zealands domestic racing population and fewer colts and geldings entering racing. Industry breeding trends demonstrate that economic viability and optimisation of revenue depend on the breeding industry focusing on the export rather than domestic market.