The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk
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Date
2024
Open Access Location
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Rights
(c) 2024 The Author/s
CC BY 4.0
CC BY 4.0
Abstract
Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and - most importantly - hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.
Description
Keywords
bats, betacoronavirus, disease ecology, geographic mosaic theory of coevolution
Citation
Forero-Muñoz NR, Muylaert RL, Seifert SN, Albery GF, Becker DJ, Carlson CJ, Poisot T. (2024). The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk. Virus Evolution. 10. 1.