Developing a decision support system for post-disaster temporary housing in Iran : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Construction at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand

Abstract

Natural disasters disrupt societies by destroying homes and displacing millions, exacerbating vulnerabilities and deepening socioeconomic disparities. Post-disaster housing recovery is a critical component of disaster management, progressing through the stages of emergency sheltering, temporary housing, and permanent housing. Temporary housing plays a pivotal role in providing displaced populations with a transitional safe haven; however, its implementation presents significant challenges, including high costs, delays in permanent housing, and suboptimal sustainability. This research addresses these complexities by developing a decision support system (DSS) tailored for post-disaster temporary housing in Iran. The research problem is defined clearly in the second section of Chapter 1 as the critical problem of post-disaster temporary housing in Iran and the lack of a reliable decision support system for the decision-makers to determine the model of housing recovery. The following section (1.3) defines the aim of the research to improve decision-making processes related to post-disaster temporary housing in Iran, and in this regard, six questions are designed and listed in Table 1.1. To address the research questions, 9 research objectives are defined, which are used to achieve the research aim in a step-by-step approach. The ultimate objective is to enhance decision-making processes for temporary housing by developing a novel decision-support system and integrating diverse factors such as sustainability, timeliness, cost-effectiveness, cultural compatibility, and technological feasibility. The research employs a multi-methodological approach: a critical literature review identifies research gaps within both global and Iranian contexts; case studies from seven disasters in Iran between 2003 and 2023 provide empirical insights; and a novel DSS framework is developed using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. Primary findings indicate that decision-making for temporary housing is not purely technical but deeply interconnected with social, cultural, and environmental dimensions. Sustainability emerges as a crucial criterion, with strategies such as modular prefabrication, 3D printing, rapid construction technologies and innovative structural systems demonstrating the potential to reduce construction time, costs, and environmental impact. However, contextual considerations, including local resource availability and cultural acceptance, remain essential for successful implementation. Further findings clearly show the significance of the decisions made about the housing recovery model, their effects on the displaced people, and the need for a reliable DSS to assist the decision-makers in this regard. The ultimate finding of this research is the DSS, developed and validated in Chapter 6, which is based on the data produced in the previous chapters and the comprehensive literature review conducted to achieve the first seven research objectives. This finding directly addresses the research problem by improving the post-disaster temporary housing process in Iran by enhancing the decision-making process. The data used for developing this research was collected from multiple sources. The first-hand data was collected from various stakeholders, including the users (displaced people), the experts form national and governmental departments, and industry. The second-hand data was used for studying the recent post-disaster recovery processes. Finally, the model was validated by two series of qualitative data collected from industry experts using interviews and focus group methods. More details about the model and validation are explained in chapter 6. This research contributes to disaster management by proposing a structured, evidence-based framework to assist decision-makers in selecting appropriate temporary housing strategies. By addressing gaps in the existing literature and emphasizing user-centred and sustainability-focused approaches, the study advances understanding and practices in post-disaster recovery. The DSS framework, validated through expert feedback, provides practical guidance for deploying temporary housing in Iran and comparable contexts, aiming to balance immediate relief needs with long-term recovery objectives. Additionally, the study underscores broader implications for global disaster management, advocating for resilient, adaptable, and inclusive reconstruction practices. The framework and methodology used in developing the DSS can be customised and utilised for similar post-disaster recovery processes in developing countries with common conditions and contribute to addressing the worldwide shelter problems. Future research should refine the DSS, explore its application across diverse contexts, and further develop sustainable reconstruction technologies. These findings contribute to fostering disaster-resilient societies, ensuring equitable recovery, and mitigating the cascading impacts of displacement.