Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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    Modeling evacuation decisions in the 2019 Kincade fire in California
    Kuligowski, ED; Zhao, X; Lovreglio, R; Xu, N; Yang, K; Westbury, A; Nilsson, D; Brown, N
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    From scientific models to decisions: exploring uncertainty communication gaps between scientists and decision-makers
    (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2025-09-01) Dhungana A; Doyle EEH; Prasanna R; McDonald G
    Effective communication of uncertainty relies on transparent exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. However, significant gaps often exist between how scientists and decision-makers perceive, understand, and communicate uncertainty. This study examines the dynamics of uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers, employing a reflective thematic analysis of 32 interview datasets, comprising 17 scientists and 15 decision-makers. Our results show that Scientists typically approach uncertainty through methodological rigour, employing technical vocabulary and probabilistic language, which aligns with their scientific training but often complicates comprehension for decision-makers. Conversely, decision-makers prioritise actionable insights and practical implications, requiring uncertainty to be communicated in a way that supports decision-making processes across diverse contexts. The study further highlights the need for tailored communication strategies that bridge the complexities of uncertainty with the practical needs of decision-makers, emphasising collaboration and user-focused uncertainty visualisations as pathways to enhance uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers for the uptake of uncertainty information into decision-making.
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    Placemaking for tenant wellbeing: Exploring the decision-making of public and community housing providers in Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2025-06) Witten K; Olin CV; Logan A; Chisholm E; Randal E; Howden-Chapman P; Leigh L
    In addition to housing tenants, many public and community housing providers engage in placemaking to foster tenants’ connections to people and place. This paper reports on the placemaking practices of four community housing providers and two urban regeneration programmes in Aotearoa New Zealand. Twenty-four semi-structured interviews were conducted with provider staff – including those leading strategy, community development, tenancy management, planning and design efforts – to investigate the placemaking strategies adopted by providers and the values, priorities and investment tensions that underpin their decision-making. Common placemaking strategies included site selection to secure tenants’ locational access to community services and amenities, and designing shared ‘bump spaces’ into housing complexes to encourage neighbourly encounters between tenants. Efforts to foster a sense of community through increased stability and diversity of households were hindered by a predominance of single-person units in older housing developments, and by funding and regulatory constraints. Māori, the Indigenous people of Aotearoa New Zealand, comprise approximately half of all public housing tenants and many have deep intergenerational connections to place. Where providers were engaging with Māori, early steps had been taken to incorporate cultural landscapes and values into placemaking initiatives; such practices were more evident in urban regeneration than community housing provider developments, enabled by longer-term planning horizons, broader development mandates and partnerships with iwi (Māori tribes) and local government. Nonetheless, placemaking aspirations of all providers were tethered to resource constraints and investment trade-offs, with any social infrastructure provision weighed up against the value of providing one more home instead.
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    Reducing AI bias in recruitment and selection: an integrative grounded approach
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2025-03-20) Soleimani M; Intezari A; Arrowsmith J; Pauleen DJ; Taskin N
    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming business domains such as operations, marketing, risk, and financial management. However, its integration into Human Resource Management (HRM) poses challenges, particularly in recruitment, where AI influences work dynamics and decision-making. This study, using a grounded theory approach, interviewed 39 HR professionals and AI developers to explore potential biases in AI-Recruitment Systems (AIRS) and identify mitigation techniques. Findings highlight a critical gap: the HR profession’s need to embrace both technical skills and nuanced people-focused competencies to collaborate effectively with AI developers and drive informed discussions on the scope of AI’s role in recruitment and selection. This research integrates Gibson’s direct perception theory and Gregory’s indirect perception theory, combining psychological, information systems, and HRM perspectives to offer insights into decision-making biases in AI. A framework is proposed to clarify decision-making biases and guide the development of robust protocols for AI in HR, with a focus on ethical oversight and regulatory needs. This research contributes to AI-based HR decision-making literature by exploring the intersection of cognitive bias and AI-augmented decisions in recruitment and selection. It offers practical insights for HR professionals and AI developers on how collaboration and perception can improve the fairness and effectiveness of AIRS-aided decisions.
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    Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado
    (Elsevier B.V., 2023-12-11) Forrister A; Kuligowski ED; Sun Y; Yan X; Lovreglio R; Cova TJ; Zhao X
    Climate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jefferson and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals’ risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.
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    How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
    (American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
    Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.