Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Modeling evacuation decisions in the 2019 Kincade fire in CaliforniaKuligowski, ED; Zhao, X; Lovreglio, R; Xu, N; Yang, K; Westbury, A; Nilsson, D; Brown, NItem Risk perception and knowledge of protective measures for flood risk planning. The case study of Brindisi (Puglia region)(2022-09-01) Santoro, S; Totaro, V; Lovreglio, R; Camarda, D; Iacobellis, V; Fratino, UFloods are among the most frequent natural hazards, and flood risk management is a paramount task when planning solutions to reduce their impact on communities. In the last decades, policy makers' actions for flood risk management have been redirected from purely physical self-protective measures towards integrated management strategies by including social components. Assessing flood risk perception and the level of knowledge of citizens regarding protective measures is becoming a pillar for generating innovative flood integrated management strategies. This study aims to highlight multiple aspects which can influence flood risk management in urban areas, providing a preliminary assessment of citizens’ flood risk perception and knowledge of protective measures. Proposed methodology is based on E-survey in order to gather data and Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests to analyze them and has been applied to the case study of Brindisi (Puglia region, Southern Italy). The results suggest that flood risk perception depends on intrinsic components of individuals, mainly related to trust in public strategies and risk communication. It depends on hazard proximity but is uniformly distributed over the whole city, demonstrating that the perception of flood risk can not be related only to river floods. Knowledge of protective measures appears uniformly low by category of citizens and territorial area, particularly for teenagers. The methodological approach has allowed to bring out how the different nature of floods could produce a spatial and social heterogeneity in citizens’ flood risk perception and knowledge of protective measures, revealing latent risk features useful for supporting flood risk planning.Item Retrofitting home insulation reduces incidence and severity of chronic respiratory disease(John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 21/08/2022) Fyfe C; Barnard LT; Douwes J; Howden-Chapman P; Crane JTo assess whether retrofitting home insulation can reduce the risk of respiratory disease incidence and exacerbation, a retrospective cohort study was undertaken using linked data from a national intervention program. The study population was made up of 1 004 795 residents from 205 001 New Zealand houses that received an insulation subsidy though a national Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority program. A difference-in-difference model compared changes in the number of prescriptions dispensed for respiratory illness post- insulation to a control population over the same timeframe. New prescribing of chronic respiratory disease medication at follow-up was used to compare incidence risk ratios between intervention and control groups. Chronic respiratory disease incidence was significantly lower in the intervention group at follow-up: odds ratio 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86-0.94). There was also a 4% reduction in medication dispensed for treating exacerbations of chronic respiratory disease symptoms in the intervention group compared with the control group: relative rate ratio (RRR) 0.96 (95% CI: 0.96-0.97). There was no change in medication dispensed to prevent symptoms of chronic respiratory disease RRR: 1,00 (95% CI: 0.99-1.00). These findings support home insulation interventions as a means of improving respiratory health outcomes.Item Automation in Fire Safety Engineering Using BIM and Generative Design(2022-01) Lovreglio, R; Thompson, P; Feng, ZItem Towards contracting strategy usage for rework in construction projects: A comprehensive review(Taylor & Francis Online, 2021) Asadi R; Wilkinson S; Rotimi JOBRework has been the core of attention for several years in the industry and academia as it affects the performance of projects. However, the trend of rework academic papers indicates an increasing rate in recent years; the overall research lacks a comprehensive review of the implemented theories and proposed models to explore further directions for rework management. Thus, to achieve a better understanding of rework it is necessary to perform an extensive review. This research aims to explore various insights from rework-related articles, discuss major research areas, and identify gaps for future studies looking closely at construction contracts. The selected articles are from three databases: “Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar”. The findings are categorized into six study areas: sources of rework, models and solutions, management and strategies, theories and techniques, rework impacts, and factors affecting rework. The analysis of the employed techniques across these topics showed that System Dynamic Modelling, Action Research, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Regression have been used more frequently than other methods. The comprehensive review also shed light on the new ways of thinking, analyzing, and controlling the impacts of the rework. This paper proposes the assessment of rework causes in the conditions of contract which provides opportunities for improvement of the construction contracts.Item Bayesian networks in healthcare: Distribution by medical condition(2020-07) McLachlan, S; Dube, K; Hitman, GA; Fenton, NE; Kyrimi, EItem Clinical risk factors, bone density and fall history in the prediction of incident fracture among men and women(2013) Edwards MH; Jameson K; Denison H; Harvey NC; Sayer AA; Dennison EM; Cooper CThe FRAX(tr) algorithm uses clinical risk factors (CRF) and bone mineral density (BMD) to predict fracture risk but does not include falls history in the calculation. Using results from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, we examined the relative contributions of CRFs, BMD and falls history to fracture prediction. We studied 2299 participants at a baseline clinic that included completion of a health questionnaire and anthropometric data. A mean of 5.5years later (range 2.9-8.8years) subjects completed a postal questionnaire detailing fall and fracture history. In a subset of 368 men and 407 women, bone densitometry was performed using a Hologic QDR 4500 instrument. There was a significantly increased risk of fracture in men and women with a previous fracture. A one standard deviation drop in femoral neck BMD was associated with a hazards ratio (HR) of incident fracture (adjusted for CRFs) of 1.92 (1.04-3.54) and 1.77 (1.16-2.71) in men and women respectively. A history of any fall since the age of 45years resulted in an unadjusted HR of fracture of 7.31 (3.78-14.14) and 8.56 (4.85-15.13) in men and women respectively. In a ROC curve analysis, the predictive capacity progressively increased as BMD and previous falls were added into an initial model using CRFs alone. Falls history is a further independent risk factor for fracture. Falls risk should be taken into consideration when assessing whether or not to commence medication for osteoporosis and should also alert the physician to the opportunity to target falls risk directly.Item Who is most likely to offend in my store now? Statistical steps towards retail crime prevention with Auror(Australian Mathematical Society, 14/08/2017) McDonald BW; Hall L; Zhang XPAuror is establishing itself both locally and internationally as a leader in retail crime solutions. In mid-2015 a study group of mathematicians and statisticians teamed up with Auror to analyse data from the first two and a half years of their venture to identify and prevent retail theft. The aim was to explore methods for nominating the top ten individuals most likely to offend in a particular store at a particular time. Various methods were employed to explore the relationships between retail crime incidents, including generalised linear models, regression trees and similarity matrices. The relationships identified were then used to inform predictions on individuals most likely to reoffend. The focus of the current analysis is to model the behaviour of reoffenders. At the time of the study group the project was still in the early phases of data collection. As data collection proceeds, prediction methods will likely give better and better intelligence to aid crime prevention efforts.Item Synthea: An approach, method, and software mechanism for generating synthetic patients and the synthetic electronic health care record(Oxford University Press (OUP), 30/08/2017) Walonoski J; Kramer M; Nichols J; Quina A; Moesel; Hall D; Duffett C; Dube K; Gallagher T; McLachlan SObjective: Our objective is to create a source of synthetic electronic health records that is readily available; suited to industrial, innovation, research, and educational uses; and free of legal, privacy, security, and intellectual property restrictions. Materials and Methods: We developed Synthea, an open-source software package that simulates the lifespans of synthetic patients, modeling the 10 most frequent reasons for primary care encounters and the 10 chronic conditions with the highest morbidity in the United States. Results: Synthea adheres to a previously developed conceptual framework, scales via open-source deployment on the Internet, and may be extended with additional disease and treatment modules developed by its user community. One million synthetic patient records are now freely available online, encoded in standard formats (eg, Health Level-7 [HL7] Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources [FHIR] and Consolidated-Clinical Document Architecture), and accessible through an HL7 FHIR application program interface. Discussion: Health care lags other industries in information technology, data exchange, and interoperability. The lack of freely distributable health records has long hindered innovation in health care. Approaches and tools are available to inexpensively generate synthetic health records at scale without accidental disclosure risk, lowering current barriers to entry for promising early-stage developments. By engaging a growing community of users, the synthetic data generated will become increasingly comprehensive, detailed, and realistic over time. Conclusion: Synthetic patients can be simulated with models of disease progression and corresponding standards of care to produce risk-free realistic synthetic health care records at scale.Item Effects of intraduodenal protein on appetite, energy intake, and antropyloroduodenal motility in healthy older compared with young men in a randomized trial.(2014-10) Soenen S; Giezenaar C; Hutchison AT; Horowitz M; Chapman I; Luscombe-Marsh NDBACKGROUND: Protein-rich supplements are used widely for the prevention and management of undernutrition in older people. The use of protein supplements in older people could, however, be counterproductive by reducing appetite and overall energy intake. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine whether aging influences the effects of protein loads, administered directly into the small intestine, on energy intake, antropyloroduodenal motility, and appetite. DESIGN: Intraduodenal infusions (240 mL, 60 min) of saline (0 kcal, control) and protein (hydrolyzed whey) loads of 30, 90, and 180 kcal were followed by an ad libitum buffet meal in 10 young (19-29 y) and 10 healthy older (68-81 y) men. Suppression of energy intake (kcal) at the meal by protein infusion compared with control was calculated. RESULTS: In young subjects, a dose-responsive suppression (±SEM) of energy intake was found at the buffet meal by protein (suppression at 30 kcal: 7 ± 8%, P = 0.189; 90 kcal: 17 ± 8%, P = 0.054; 180 kcal: 33 ± 7%, P = 0.002), whereas suppression was observed only after the 180-kcal load in older subjects (30 kcal: 7 ± 4% increase, P = 0.126; 90 kcal: 6 ± 7% increase, P = 0.291; 180 kcal: 17 ± 6% suppression, P = 0.016). Suppression of energy intake by protein was less in older than in young subjects (P < 0.005). In young subjects, total energy intake (meal + infusion) on the 180-kcal protein-infusion day was lower than that on the control day (P = 0.041), whereas in older subjects it was greater on the 30-kcal (P = 0.033) and 90-kcal (P = 0.016) infusion days. Energy intake was inversely related to isolated pyloric pressure waves (r = -0.32, P = 0.013) and positively related to antral (r = 0.30, P = 0.021) and duodenal (r = 0.35, P = 0.006) pressure waves. Suppression of energy intake by protein was inversely related to the change in isolated pyloric pressure waves (r = -0.35, P = 0.027) and positively related to duodenal pressure waves (r = 0.32, P = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Intraduodenal protein suppresses appetite and energy intake less in healthy older than in young adults. In older subjects, intraduodenal protein at low doses increased overall energy intake, which supports the use of protein supplements in undernourished older people. This trial was registered at www.anzctr.org.au as 12612000906853.
