Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Modeling evacuation decisions in the 2019 Kincade fire in CaliforniaKuligowski, ED; Zhao, X; Lovreglio, R; Xu, N; Yang, K; Westbury, A; Nilsson, D; Brown, NItem Comparative analysis of fire evacuation decision-making in immersive vs. non-immersive virtual reality environments(Elsevier B V, 2025-11-01) Zhang Y; Paes D; Feng Z; Scorgie D; He P; Lovreglio RUnderstanding emergency behavior is crucial for designing safer, resilient infrastructure. Immersive Virtual Reality (VR) realistically simulates emergencies but is resource-intensive, so systematic comparisons with non-immersive VR remain scarce. To address this gap, a multifactorial VR fire-evacuation experiment was conducted in which participants navigated a room with three exits under varied conditions (e.g., social influence, smoke presence, exit distance, exit familiarity). Results indicated no significant difference in overall decision-making between immersive and non-immersive VR. Nevertheless, immersion modulated key factors: in immersive VR, participants preferred nearer exits, were more susceptible to social influence, and experienced stronger effects of smoke and exit familiarity. Smoke also reduced the influence of exit distance. Personal factors (e.g., prior VR experience, age, gender) shaped perceptions and emotions; heightened negative emotions and perceived risk were associated with less rational (i.e., suboptimal) choices, particularly in immersive VR. These insights inform VR safety training, guiding simulations that more faithfully replicate real emergencies.Item A Virtual Reality Exit Choice Experiment to Assess the Impact of Social Influence and Fire Wardens in a Metro Station Evacuation(Springer Nature, 2025-05-19) Lu S; Rodriguez M; Feng Z; Paes D; Daemei AB; Vancetti R; Mander S; Mandal T; Rao KR; Lovreglio RAssessing evacuation time is a fundamental task in fire engineering. One of the key decisions made in evacuation dynamics is exit choice. In this work, we propose a new immersive virtual reality (VR) experiment to assess the effects of social influence and fire wardens’ instructions on the exit chosen. We also investigate if and how the perceived level of authority of the fire wardens (i.e., metro staff members or firefighters) can affect these decisions. The proposed immersive VR experiment includes 12 different scenarios during a fire evacuation in an underground metro station. A sample of 131 participants took part in the experiment, making 1048 choices. We estimate a discrete choice model to quantify if and how these factors affect the participants’ decisions. The results show that both instructions by fire wardens and social influence significantly affect exit choice and that the impact of fire wardens can change depending on their perceived level of authority.Item Can active and passive wayfinding systems support fire evacuation in buildings? Insights from a virtual reality-based experiment(Elsevier B.V., 2023-05-24) Bernardini G; Lovreglio R; Quagliarini E; D'Orazio MOccupant safety in case of building fires depends on the selection of proper evacuation routes. Today, several passive and active Emergency Wayfinding Systems (EWSs) have been proposed to support occupant route choices. Nevertheless, their effectiveness should be accurately assessed before being manufactured and used. In this sense, Virtual Reality (VR) could support the design and preliminary evaluation phases, using the Theory of Affordances to quantitatively verify if the EWSs are correctly visible, understood, and able to support users in fulfilling the evacuation goal. This work hence aims at comparing the efficiency of different EWSs in terms of the Theory of Affordances through a VR experiment involving more than 70 volunteers of different ages. The experimental setup focuses on three types of EWSs (punctual and photoluminescent; passive, continuous and photoluminescent; continuous and active) and lights-on, lights-off and smoke conditions in an educational building. Results mainly indicate that the passive EWSs receive a higher rating while supporting the direction selection, while the active EWS is more effective along mono-directional paths. The work also confirms the capabilities of the proposed combined affordances-based and VR-based approach, boosting future works and suggesting additional comparisons between real-world and VR experiments on emergency wayfinding tasks and systems.Item Determinants of Gaps in Human Behaviour in Fire Research(Springer Nature, 2024-08-08) Ronchi E; Kapalo K; Bode N; Boyce K; Cuesta A; Feng Y; Galea ER; Geoerg P; Gwynne S; Kennedy EB; Kinateder M; Kinsey M; Kuligowski E; Köster G; Lovreglio R; Mossberg A; Ono R; Spearpoint M; Strahan K; Wong SDThis short communication presents the findings of the work conducted by the human behaviour in fire permanent working group of the International Association for Fire Safety Science. Its aim is to identify determinants of research gaps in the field of human behaviour in fire. Two workshops were conducted in 2023 in which research gaps were identified and discussed by twenty experts. The workshops led experts through a series of questions to determine the reasons (or determinants) for these gaps in human behaviour in building fires and wildfires. Through the questions, the primary identified determinants were (1) researchers’ literacy in the variety of methods adopted in the field, (2) difficulties associated with recruitment of study participants, (3) multi-disciplinary barriers across different research sub-domains, and (4) issues in obtaining funding for addressing fundamental human behaviour in fire research questions. Two key issues emerged from an open discussion during the workshops, namely the difficulties in attracting and training new people in the field (given the limited educational offers around the world on the topic) and the need for more regular opportunities for the community to meet.Item Social vulnerabilities and wildfire evacuations: A case study of the 2019 Kincade fire(Elsevier B.V., 2024-05-31) Sun Y; Forrister A; Kuligowski ED; Lovreglio R; Cova TJ; Zhao XVulnerable populations (e.g., populations with lower income or disabilities) are disproportionately impacted by natural hazards like wildfires. It is crucial to develop equitable and effective evacuation strategies to meet their unique needs. While existing studies offer valuable insights, we need to improve our understanding of how vulnerabilities affect wildfire evacuation decision-making, as well as how this varies spatially. The goal of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impacts of social vulnerabilities on aggregated evacuation decisions, including evacuation rates, delay in departure time, and evacuation destination distance by leveraging large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices. Specifically, we inferred evacuation decisions at the level of the census block group, a geographic unit defined by the U.S. Census, utilizing GPS data. We then employed ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models to investigate the impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation decisions. We also used Moran's I to test if these impacts were consistent across different block groups. The 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California, was used as the case study. The impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation rates show significant spatial variations across block groups, whereas their effects on the other two decision types do not. Additionally, unemployment, a factor under-explored in previous studies, was identified as contributing to both an increased delay in departure time and a reduction in destination distance of evacuees at the aggregate level. Furthermore, upon comparing the significant factors across different models, we observed that some of the vulnerabilities contributing to evacuation rates for all residents differed from those affecting the delay in departure time and destination distance, which only applied to evacuees. These new insights can guide emergency managers and transportation planners to enhance equitable wildfire evacuation planning and operations.Item Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado(Elsevier B.V., 2023-12-11) Forrister A; Kuligowski ED; Sun Y; Yan X; Lovreglio R; Cova TJ; Zhao XClimate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jefferson and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals’ risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.Item Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand(Elsevier BV, 2021-08) Wild AJ; Bebbington MS; Lindsay JM; Charlton DHAuckland, New Zealand's largest city (population of ~1.6 million), is situated atop the monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). As in many places faced with volcanic activity, evacuation is seen as the best risk mitigation strategy for preserving lives in the event of volcanic unrest and/or an eruption. However, planning for an evacuation can be challenging. In particular, the uncertainty in vent location resulting from the monogenetic nature of the field makes identifying neighbourhoods to be evacuated impractical until well into the pre-eruption unrest period. This study uses spatial analysis methods to assess exposure for both population and private transport ownership as well as to identify those areas requiring public transport support for an evacuation. These data were overlaid on a range of possible vent locations across the AVF using a 500 × 500 m grid. At each possible vent location, a 5 km evacuation zone is modelled, following the official contingency plan for evacuation in a future AVF event. In order to simulate vent location uncertainty leading up to a future eruption, a range of buffer distances were applied around the modelled vent locations. The exposure data derived were then used to model evacuation clearance time, which considered four phases: 1) the time taken to decide to call an evacuation; 2) the public notification time; 3) the evacuee's time to prepare; and 4) evacuee's travel time to beyond the evacuation zone. The length of time involved in phases 1 to 3 are all independent of the vent location; our analysis found these phases could be completed within 36 h, with over 80% confidence. Travel times to beyond the evacuation zone were modelled using the exposure analysis for population and private transport ownership combined with road network data and vehicle carrying capacity. This revealed travel times for this phase ranging from less than 1 up to 11 h, depending on traffic congestion, when considering no vent uncertainty. By combining the times modelled for all four phases, we found that when there is high certainty in the vent location, the median total evacuation clearance time with no congestion is approximately 37 h. However, include a 10 km vent uncertainty buffer into the model, the evacuation clearance time can increase to between 38 and 55 h, dependent on traffic congestion. A vent in the densely populated inner Auckland and CBD area would result in the greatest population required to evacuate, and also the greatest need for public transport support given the low vehicle ownership in this area. Our results can be used to inform emergency management decision making, and the model can be adapted for other regions as well as for other hazards.Item Investigating office buildings evacuations using unannounced fire drills: The case study of CERN, Switzerland(2021-10-01) Rahouti A; Lovreglio R; Dias C; Kuligowski E; Gai G; La Mendola SThe main objective of this paper is to explore evacuees’ behaviour during an unannounced fire drill using data collected in two office buildings located at CERN, in Switzerland. Overall, a total of 142 pre-evacuation time measurements, 121 evacuee walking speed measurements in staircase configurations, and 336 evacuee walking speed measurements on floor configurations are included in the dataset. These data were compared with the existing evacuation data for office buildings. This comparison revealed that the pre-evacuation times measured in the present study are significantly lower compared to existing data from the literature for the same type of occupancy. Walking speed data collected in corridors in the present study is within the range of the values reported in previous studies. Further, walking speeds on descending stairways measured in the present study were significantly higher than those available in the literature. However, the novel dataset presented in this study is in accordance with the values recommended in well-known guidelines (such as the SFPE Handbook) and could be used in the future to simulate evacuations of office buildings.Item Tsunami awareness and preparedness in Aotearoa New Zealand: The evolution of community understanding(Elsevier Ltd, 2021-11-01) Dhellemmes A; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Vinnell LJ; Becker JS; Fraser SA; Paton DAfter catastrophic events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami there is a clear need for vulnerable countries like Aotearoa New Zealand to get prepared for tsunami. In the last ten years, the New Zealand government initiated major efforts to raise awareness of tsunami risk among coastal residents. This study explores tsunami awareness, preparedness, and evacuation intentions among residents of the East Coast of the North Island in a 2015 survey. The ten chosen locations also participated in a tsunami survey in 2003, with results demonstrating that tsunami awareness rose in the twelve years between the surveys. The 2015 survey also included questions on preparedness and intended action. Even though coastal residents know they live in a tsunami prone area, preparedness is relatively low and high expectations of a formal warning remain, even for a local source tsunami scenario. Furthermore, survey respondents had unrealistic ideas of evacuation procedures. When asked about their evacuation intentions, respondents intended to undertake a number of different actions before evacuating their homes, which could cause significant delays in the evacuation process. Most respondents were also reluctant to evacuate on foot and prefer using their vehicles instead, which could create dangerous traffic congestion. These surveyed intentions are consistent with a study of actual evacuation behaviours in the subsequent 2016 Kaikōura earthquake and tsunami, providing validation for the survey indicators. This paper identifies the procedures least understood by the public and offers some solutions to improve tsunami preparedness.
